(NEW YORK) — This year’s Atlantic hurricane season will see below-average tropical activity, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
The decreased storm activity is driven by El Nino, which is forecast to emerge soon and persist through the season, the agency announced on Thursday.
Atlantic hurricane season starts on June 1 and continues through Nov. 30.
There is currently a 55% chance that this year’s season will be below average, according to NOAA, with eight to 14 named storms, tropical storms and stronger expected for the season.
Three to six hurricanes could occur, of which one to three could major storms with Category 3 intensity or stronger, NOAA said.
NOAA’s hurricane outlooks predict overall seasonal activity, though levels of activity can vary throughout the six-month season. It does not predict how many storms will make landfall or specific locations where landfalls might occur.
An average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, according to NOAA.
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season brought 13 named storms, just below the long-term seasonal average
While there were no landfalling hurricanes in the United States last year for the first time in a decade, the season still proved to be consequential, producing three Category 5 hurricanes, including Melissa, which devastated Jamaica.
Factors affecting this year’s hurricane forecast
The impact of El Nino on this year’s Atlantic and Eastern Pacific hurricane seasons will largely depend on how quickly it develops and how strong it gets. Even so, El Nino is only one of several important variables that influence tropical activity.
El Nino conditions often suppress activity during the Atlantic hurricane season by producing unfavorable atmospheric winds. In the Eastern Pacific, the opposite occurs, with favorable conditions supporting above-average hurricane season activity.
“El Nino increases convection (thunderstorms) across the eastern and central Pacific, which causes downstream wind shear over the Atlantic from strong upper-level winds,” Andy Hazelton, an associate scientist at the University of Miami’s Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, told ABC News.
Vertical wind shear, which refers to changes in wind speed and direction with height in the atmosphere, is often a primary factor in below-average hurricane season activity. Strong vertical wind shear can tear a developing tropical system apart or even prevent it from forming, NOAA says.
“The rising motion over the Pacific also leads to increased subsidence (sinking air) over the Atlantic, which suppresses thunderstorms and tropical cyclone development,” Hazelton said.
Other factors, such as sea surface temperatures, play an important role in tropical cyclone development and strength. Unseasonably warm ocean waters can partially offset the effects of unfavorable atmospheric winds, according to forecasters.
“Although El Nino’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” said NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. “That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”
The climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is Sept. 10, with most activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October, on average, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Historically, about two-thirds of Atlantic hurricane season activity occurs between Aug. 20 and Oct. 10, the National Hurricane Center said.
Storm names for 2026
A tropical cyclone is assigned a name once it reaches tropical storm strength, which is when maximum sustained winds reach at least 39 mph. A tropical storm becomes a hurricane when maximum sustained winds are 74 mph or higher.
Hurricanes with maximum sustained winds of 111 mph or higher are classified as major hurricanes of Category 3 to Category 5.
The World Meteorological Organization’s Hurricane Committee oversees the six tropical cyclone name lists, which repeat every six years. This year’s list was last used in 2020. The first named storm of the season will be called Arthur, followed by Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Leah, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred.
Eastern Pacific outlook
By contrast, El Nino will likely increase tropical activity in the eastern Pacific.
NOAA is predicting above-average tropical activity for the 2026 Eastern Pacific hurricane season, with a 70% likelihood.
The agency has predicted 15 to 22 named storms, with nine to 14 of those storms forecast to reach hurricane strength. Between five and nine major hurricanes could impact the eastern Pacific basin, NOAA said.
An active eastern Pacific could put Hawaii at an increased risk of tropical systems this year, while also increasing the likelihood of indirect impacts to the southwestern United States, such as sending more rain to the region.
Less active seasons can still bring devastating storms
High-impact, devastating storms can still occur during seasons with near to below-average tropical activity.
In 1992, the Atlantic hurricane season was well below average, with only six named storms. However, the only U.S. landfalling hurricane of the season, Andrew, also became the nation’s most expensive natural disaster on record at the time.
In 2018, Hurricanes Florence and Michael brought catastrophic impacts to portions of the southeastern United States, while the overall season featured near-average activity, with 15 named storms.
In 2022, Hurricane Ian brought catastrophic impacts to parts of Florida, becoming the state’s costliest hurricane on record during a season that also featured near-average activity, with 14 named storms.
What’s new in forecasting this year
The National Hurricane Center announced several updates to its forecast products for the upcoming season.
For example, the forecast cone, representing a storm’s probably track, is going to be about 4% to 8% smaller in the Atlantic basin, and roughly 3% to 8% smaller in the Pacific, compared to the 2025 cone, conveying less uncertainty with the forecasts.
The National Hurricane Center has also launched a mobile-friendly version of its website, hurricanes.gov, which provides tropical forecasts and alerts.
And for the first time, drone data will be incorporated into NOAA’s hurricane forecast model, providing a new tool to help forecasters better predict storm intensity.
The agency partnered with Black Swift Technologies to develop a fleet of small, uncrewed aircraft built to withstand data collection in extreme weather conditions.
The data will be integrated into NOAA’s hurricane forecast model during the 2026 hurricane season. NOAA researchers found that incorporating the drone data into NOAA’s Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) can improve intensity forecast accuracy by 10%.
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